On Monday 12 September the Boundary Commission for England released it’s proposed changes to parliamentary constituency boundaries for Bedfordshire.

The proposed new constituency of Luton South would be made up of the following council wards (all within Luton Borough):

• Barnfield
• Biscot
• Crawley
• Dallow
• Farley
• High Town
• Round Green
• Saints
• South
• Stopsley
• Wigmore

Having looked again at this I will stand by my initial reaction to the proposed new Luton South constituency. If implemented these changes would make Luton South a safer Labour seat. Although it would remain competitive for all three main parties. The Conservatives do lose out though and it becomes harder for them to catch Labour. The Liberal Democrats get a modest boost.

The figures below show the actual result in 2010, the Guardian’s best guess of what the result would have been in 2010 on the new boundaries, and the average vote in each ward in the new constituency at the 2011 local elections. The local election figures were calculated by me and so I apologise if they contain any errors.

The old Luton South (vote at the 2010 General Election):

• Labour 14,725
• Conservative 12,396
• Lib Dem 9,567

The new Luton South (figures from the Guardian DataBlog):

• Labour 18,325
• Conservative 14,532
• Lib Dem 9,977

The new Luton South 2011 local elections (average vote in wards in new boundaries):

• Labour 13,538
• Conservative 6,383
• Lib Dem 8,999