On Monday 12 September the Boundary Commission for England released it’s proposed changes to parliamentary constituency boundaries for Bedfordshire.

The proposed new constituency of Luton North and Dunstable would be made up of the following council wards:

From Central Bedfordshire:

• Dunstable Downs
• Icknield
• Northfields
• Watling

From Luton:

• Bramingham
• Challney
• Icknield
• Leagrave
• Lewsey
• Limbury
• Northwell
• Sundon Park

Initially I wasn’t sure what to make of a Luton North and Dunstable constituency. Now, having looked at the numbers, the conclusion is pretty clear. If implemented these changes would mean that the proposed new seat would be a highly marginal contest between the Conservatives and Labour.

The figures below show the actual result in 2010, the Guardian’s best guess of what the result would have been in 2010 on the new boundaries, and the average vote in each ward in the new constituency at the 2011 local elections. The local election figures were calculated by me and so I apologise if they contain any errors.

The old Luton North (vote at the 2010 General Election):

• Labour 21,192
• Conservative 13,672
• Lib Dem 4,784

The new Luton North and Dunstable (figures from the Guardian DataBlog):

• Labour 20,325
• Conservative 20,246
• Lib Dem 7,358

The new Luton North and Dunstable 2011 local elections (average vote in wards in new boundaries):

• Labour 12,455
• Conservative 11,328
• Lib Dem 3,441

Note that the Liberal Democrats didn’t stand candidates in some of the wards in the 2011 election so their local election figure is to some extent artificially deflated.