Nick Assinder on Luton South

Journalist Nick Assinder has written a piece on the election campaign in Luton South for ePolitix.  Like much of the coverage the seat has had he concentrates on independent candidate Esther Rantzen almost to the exclusion of everything else. However, he realistically concludes that she is unlikely to win the seat. Indeed his conclusion could be read as hinting at a Liberal Democrat win. The key passage is;

“Now, though, talk to voters going about their shopping in the Mall and market and, while the fury at Moran’s antics is obvious, the way that will be expressed in the ballot box is far less clear.

In 2005 the gap between Labour and the Tories was under 6,000 and between the Conservative candidate and the Liberal Democrat, just over 2,000.

And the Clegg effect appears to be working here, as elsewhere.

Luton South is one of the most reliable “bellwether” constituencies in the land, electing a candidate from the party that wins the election every poll since 1951.

At the start of the campaign that led most in the constituency to believe it would be a straight Lab-Tory fight. Not any more.”

This content was originally posted on my old Strange Thoughts blog.